Thoughts on $XOP testing 190 by month-end

Been looking at $XOP lately, specifically its recent movement. We're currently at 186.33, and it seems to have some momentum, trading in a daily range of 185.36–187.81 today. Given the broader energy complex sentiment and what looks like continued demand, I'm starting to wonder about its likelihood of touching 190 before the end of the month.

My gut says there's a roughly 60-65% chance we see that level. The daily chart shows decent strength, and while it's not a breakout by any means, the floor seems to be holding. If crude continues its gentle climb or at least consolidates around current levels, that should provide enough tailwind. The main risk, as always, would be a sudden reversal in oil prices or some unexpected macro headwind, but for now, the path of least resistance looks marginally up. Curious to hear if anyone else has been watching this, and what probabilities you're assigning?