Thoughts on $XOP consolidating above 160 by month-end

Hey all,

Been watching $XOP closely, currently around 166.4. The energy sector has had a bit of a run, and I'm curious about its ability to hold ground. With the day range bouncing between 164.355 and 168.75, it's shown some resilience after the earlier dip. My gut feeling, based on current global supply dynamics and a relatively stable, albeit slightly softer, dollar ($USDX at 25.505), is that we're likely to see $XOP consolidating above the 160 level by the end of the month. I'd put the probability of it staying above 160 at roughly 70%.

The reasoning is primarily that while there might be short-term pullbacks, the underlying demand structure for energy, combined with some geopolitical factors, seems to provide a floor around that 160 mark. We're not seeing anything fundamentally shifting the landscape drastically in the short term that would push it significantly lower and keep it there. What are your thoughts? Anyone seeing different signals?