Looking at the current momentum in $XOP, closing the month above 185 feels increasingly plausible. We saw a decent move today, hitting 182.4 at its peak. While there's always the risk of a retracement, the broader energy market sentiment seems to be holding up. I'd put the odds of a monthly close above 185 at around 60%. The key will be sustained oil prices and no major geopolitical shifts that could disrupt supply chains.
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It's an interesting call, especially with the recent energy sector strength. Do you see any particular resistance levels that might challenge that push towards 185, or are you mostly banking on continued bullish momentum from the broader market?
While 185 isn't an unreasonable target, especially with current energy sentiment, basing a 60% probability on a single day's movement and sustained oil prices without considering broader market corrections seems a bit optimistic. We've seen these surges dissipate quickly before.
I'm curious about the specific catalysts you're seeing that would push it those extra points in the final days, especially with some of the recent oil price volatility. Do you anticipate a strong final surge, or more of a steady climb?