Examining the probability of XOP consolidating under 170 this month

Seeing $XOP break past 176 today was interesting, especially with the intra-day range between 169.06 and 176.27. It's certainly extended and the daily chart looks like it's chasing momentum.

My take for month-end: I'd put the odds of $XOP settling back under 170 by close of play this month at around 60%. While the current run has strength, this kind of vertical move often sees a retest of prior levels or at least some form of consolidation. We're also hitting some longer-term resistance areas if you zoom out. I'm not calling for a crash, just a more probable re-evaluation by the market given the pace of this recent leg up. The market tends to digest these spikes.