On $XOP and the 170.00 Level by Month-End

Looking at $XOP, currently around 166.4, I'm trying to gauge the likelihood of a push past the 170.00 mark before month-end. We've seen it test the upper end of its recent range today, hitting 168.75, which suggests there's still some underlying momentum. However, it's also shown some difficulty sustaining moves above 169.00 in the past few sessions. Given the current macro environment and the recent pullback in crude, my rough estimate for $XOP closing above 170.00 by October 31st is about 40%. The recent strong impulse buyers seem to be a bit fatigued, and without a fresh catalyst for energy, it feels like it's more likely to chop sideways or see a slight retracement from here.