Thoughts on WTI re-testing mid-80s by month-end

Hey everyone,

Been watching the crude complex pretty closely lately, and I'm leaning towards WTI re-testing the mid-80s by month-end. Not saying it's a sure thing, but I'd put the odds around 60/40. My reasoning is a mix of tightening supply narratives – particularly with OPEC+ rhetoric and some ongoing geopolitical hotspots – coupled with what looks like a resilient demand picture, at least for now. We've seen some of the recent EIA data point to draws, and while the global growth picture is still a mixed bag, the immediate energy demand seems robust enough to absorb current production.

There's also the technical side of things; we've held up pretty well after a few attempts to break lower. If we can get some follow-through above these current levels, which are hovering around the $EM 1.195 mark for some of the related energy plays I follow, it could provide the momentum needed. Of course, a significant shift in the global economic outlook or an unexpected inventory build could easily throw a wrench in that. Just my two cents, interested to hear if anyone else is seeing similar patterns or completely different takes.