WTI's Path to $80 by Mid-June - Weighing the Odds

Been watching WTI closely, and the recent consolidation around the low-to-mid $70s has me thinking about the next directional move. While there's a lot of noise about global demand and supply fluctuations, the underlying narrative I'm tracking is the interplay between a potential summer driving season uptick in demand and the still-present concerns around Chinese economic recovery.

My take is that we're seeing some latent demand pressure building. Inventories have drawn down more than expected in recent weeks, and the narrative coming out of the refining sector suggests a tightening. On the supply side, OPEC+ cuts are generally holding, and while US shale is always a wildcard, the current drilling activity doesn't point to a massive surge. Considering these factors, I'd put the probability of WTI reaching $80 a barrel by mid-June at roughly 60%. It's not a slam dunk, given the broader macro headwinds that could resurface, but the current technical setup coupled with the seasonal demand uplift presents a compelling case. A sustained break above $77 would be a strong confirmation of this trajectory, with resistance likely around the $82-83 area. A failure to hold $73 on the downside would challenge this outlook significantly, pushing us back into the $60s.