WTI hitting 85 again by year-end - Probable Scenario

Been watching crude here, the range has been pretty defined lately. My take is we've got a decent shot at WTI revisiting the mid-80s, say $85, before year-end. I'd put the probability at around 60-65%.

The rationale is multifaceted. On the demand side, despite the slowdown chatter, summer driving demand and air travel are still robust globally. India and China, especially, continue to show resilience in energy consumption. Couple that with the supply side constraints – OPEC+ maintaining their cuts, and the ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Russia creating a constant underlying premium. Inventory draws are also a factor. We're not seeing the kind of massive builds that would indicate a demand collapse. It feels like the path of least resistance for now is higher, even if it's a grind. A strong dollar might cap it slightly, but the physical market seems tighter than the headlines suggest. It's a forecast, not a trade call, obviously, but worth considering for anyone managing exposure.