WTI's path to $85 by end of Q2 - My 60/40 take.

Been looking at the WTI charts a lot lately, and I'm leaning towards us hitting or at least testing the $85 mark before the end of Q2. My rough odds are probably 60/40 on this. The geopolitical premium seems baked in for now, but I'm thinking the real push comes from a combination of demand outlook (as travel picks up into summer) and potentially some unexpected supply-side disruptions – think maintenance or minor outages. Inventory draws haven't been as aggressive as some hoped, but the underlying trend feels firm. I'm not seeing anything that suggests a massive pullback in the short-term, given the current environment. What are others seeing that might push it higher or hold it back?