WTI's path to 85 by Q4-end?

Been watching the WTI futures pretty closely lately, and I'm starting to build a thesis around an $85 target by end of Q4. The current geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, coupled with what feels like a tightening supply picture as OPEC+ holds firm on cuts, seem to be creating a floor. Demand, while not booming, isn't collapsing either, especially with summer driving season kicking in soon. I'm putting the odds of hitting $85 by December at around 60%. My reasoning is that any further escalation, even minor, will add a risk premium, and inventory draws could become more pronounced. What are others seeing? Am I being too optimistic on demand resilience or underestimating the potential for new supply from non-OPEC sources?