WTI's Dance with $80 — A Month-End Forecast

Alright folks, keeping an eye on WTI here. We've seen some choppy action, but the underlying bid still feels resilient despite the macro headwinds. My two cents is there's about a 65% chance WTI taps $80 by month-end. We're not far off, and the supply picture, especially with the rhetoric around potential OPEC+ actions and summer driving demand creeping up, looks more supportive than not. Yes, the dollar strength (look at $USDSEK, for instance, holding steady) and broader growth concerns (even with $SAP showing some muscle, it's not universal) are a drag, but the physical market for crude seems to be tightening up just enough to give it that final push. It won't be a rocket ship, more like a stubborn mule nudging a fence, but the path of least resistance looks marginally higher, barring some black swan event from the Middle East, which, let's be honest, is always on the table, isn't it?