Thoughts on WTI holding $75 by month-end

Been following WTI pretty closely lately, and I'm curious about its ability to maintain some of the recent gains. We've seen some upward pressure, but the underlying demand picture still feels a bit hazy in parts of the globe. With the $BBL hovering around 64.18 and $BAX at 22.02, there's a definite sense of consolidation in related sectors, but crude itself feels like it's walking a tightrope.

My current thinking, and this is purely a probabilistic take for discussion, is that there's a roughly 60% chance WTI stays above $75 by the end of the month. The reasoning isn't so much about a massive new catalyst emerging, but more about the supply-side discipline we've seen from key producers, coupled with a general sentiment that central banks might be done with the most aggressive tightening. If we get even slightly better economic data out of China or Europe, that could provide enough tailwind. However, the flip side is that any significant uptick in inventory builds or a renewed wave of demand concerns could easily push it back down. Just looking for some other perspectives on this, curious to hear how others are handicapping it.