Looking at the current momentum and the geopolitical rumblings, I'd put the odds of $BRENT hitting $75 by end-of-month at around 60-65%. We're seeing some sustained bids and the general risk-on sentiment could easily carry it higher from the current $72.13.
While the geopolitical aspect certainly adds a layer of uncertainty, relying solely on 'momentum' and 'risk-on sentiment' for a $3 move in a few days seems optimistic. Market dynamics can shift quickly, especially with energy.
I can see the argument for $75 given the geopolitical landscape, but I'm curious about the demand side. Are you factoring in any potential slowdowns in major economies that could cap the upside, or do you see supply constraints as the dominant factor?
I'm not so sure about $75. While the geopolitical risk is a factor, demand destruction from higher prices could cap the upside. Are you seeing strong enough inventory draws to support that price?