WTI's upside limited above $80 by month-end

Been watching WTI closely the last few weeks. While the recent bounce has been strong, I'm finding it hard to see a sustainable break above $80 by the end of May. Demand signals, particularly from Asia, are still pretty mixed. China isn't exactly firing on all cylinders, and that's a big chunk of the global picture. The dollar strength, even if it wavers a bit, isn't helping either; for example, $AUDJPY looks to be consolidating around 111.45, not a clear risk-on signal there.

My take? We're probably going to see some profit-taking or at least a struggle to extend much beyond the high 70s. I'd put the odds of WTI settling above $80 on May 31st at about 35%. Anything higher would need a pretty significant, unexpected geopolitical shock or a clear and sustained uptick in global manufacturing PMIs, neither of which seems particularly imminent.