r/macro-events

So, we're all playing this grand guessing game with the Fed, aren't we? "Data dependent" seems to be the mantra, which, for those of us with actual money on the line, feels a bit like being told to hit a moving target in the dark. Every whisper of CPI or jobs numbers sends a ripple through everything. Saw $PLTR sitting around 171.54 today, and $VNM at 17.11 – neither of which I'm touching with a ten-foot pole right now, given the macro winds. It’s not about their individual fundamentals as much as the broader current pulling everything.

My take? The market's still trying to price in the 'if' and 'when' of rate cuts, and until we get a clearer signal, I'm staying pretty liquid. My watchlist is heavy on things that historically fare well when rates are stable or dropping, but I'm not rushing in. More importantly, I'm watching the sentiment shifts, because sometimes, the market's collective gut feeling trumps the actual numbers for a bit. Anyone else feeling like they need a crystal ball more than an Excel spreadsheet these days?

Watching $CADCHF here with the BoC statement later this week. Given the recent inflation data, I'm putting the odds of a hawkish tilt, or at least a maintenance of current hawkish rhetoric, at about 65%. If we see that, I wouldn't be surprised to see CAD strength push $CADCHF back towards the upper end of its recent range, maybe testing 0.587 by month-end. Otherwise, if they waffle, a slide back towards 0.582 seems more likely, as the market seems to be front-running hawkishness a bit already. Just my two cents on the current setup, not financial advice.

The $CAD has been flat today at 95.879, which feels like the quiet before a storm. With manufacturing PMI data due out tomorrow, I'm keeping a close eye on any positioning. A strong print could finally give it some direction against the majors, especially with oil stabilizing.

The NFP print came in strong, pushing back rate cut expectations for some, but I'm keenly watching jobless claims data this week to see if that labor market strength holds or if cracks are starting to show. A notable uptick there could shift the narrative quickly and bring $MRVL back into my focus for a potential dip.

Watching $NATGAS today, seeing it dip to 2.702 after a decent move up earlier in the week. We're still seeing strong storage levels and the mild winter predictions aren't helping, but I'm starting to wonder if the downside is becoming a bit more contained. Production cuts are on the table for some players, and even with the current numbers, demand for LNG exports remains a steady, underlying factor. I'm keeping it on the watchlist for a potential bottoming formation around these levels, especially if we see any shifts in short-term weather forecasts or further signals on production discipline. Not rushing in, but the risk-reward for a long position might be improving as we approach support.

Watching $SI this morning, down another 5.16% at 19.66, with that intraday low ticking near 19.53. It's not just silver; the broader metals complex is feeling the pinch. This move, coupled with the dollar firming up, seems to reflect market positioning ahead of the upcoming Fed commentary. If we get a more hawkish tone than some are currently pricing in, that could extend the dollar rally, further pressuring commodities.

My watchlist is heavily skewed towards dollar strength plays and re-evaluating commodity-dependent names. I'm keeping a close eye on interest-rate sensitive sectors. The market seems to be front-running potential hawkishness, and if the Fed delivers, we could see some continuation.

Considering the recent strength in oil and the Bank of Canada's hawkish tone, there's a good chance, I'd say around 65%, that $CADUSD will test the 0.7250 level by month-end, especially if US economic data softens further.

Noticed the $USDX ticking up a bit today, currently at 25.58 after holding around 25.51 for a while. It's not a massive move, but given how much noise there's been around central bank divergence, it's definitely got my attention. We've got CPI data hitting soon, and I'm wondering if this slight strengthening in the dollar is an early read from some players anticipating a hotter print, or if it's just general uncertainty in the run-up.

My main concern is how this might impact the short-term outlook for anything dollar-denominated, particularly commodities. If the dollar continues to firm up on the back of stronger-than-expected inflation or a more hawkish Fed tone post-CPI, it could put a bit of a lid on some of the recent commodity rallies. Definitely keeping a close eye on the CPI numbers next week and how they square with this little $USDX push. No strong directional plays yet, just watching for now.

Watching the Fed's stance closely, my current read suggests a slightly more hawkish dot plot for March than some anticipate, particularly regarding the median projection for 2024 rate cuts. While the market has been pricing in a good chance of 3-4 cuts by year-end, I'd assign about a 60% probability that the Fed's updated median dot plot projects only two cuts for 2024. The reasoning here stems from persistent, albeit moderating, inflation data, coupled with a remarkably resilient labor market. Recent rhetoric has leaned into a 'higher for longer' narrative, and unless we see a significant deterioration in economic data between now and March, Powell and co. will likely want to maintain optionality and avoid prematurely signaling an aggressive easing cycle. This could lead to some short-term volatility, especially in rate-sensitive assets, but for now, the economic data isn't screaming for rapid cuts, and the Fed is acutely aware of the 'stop-start' policy missteps of the past. The current levels of $CRV, trading around $0.2512, are interesting to watch in this context as broader market sentiment shifts based on these macro cues.

Been watching ASML pretty closely over the last few sessions, and it seems like the upward momentum is really consolidating. We saw it touch 1853.315 today, and while it pulled back slightly, the intraday range of 1820.41 to that high suggests a lot of buyer interest on dips. I'm wondering if the broader market's push into tech, especially with the AI narrative still very strong, could give it another leg up.

My gut feeling, and this is just an educated guess based on recent price action and the overall sentiment around chip equipment manufacturers, is that we have a decent chance of seeing ASML test the 1900 level by the end of next week. I'd put the probability somewhere around 60-65%. The reasoning isn't based on any specific news event, but more on the technical resilience and the continued inflows into this sector. If we see a slight correction in the broader indices, it might delay it, but for now, the path of least resistance seems to be higher. What are others seeing in terms of volume or any significant options activity that might support or counter this idea?

Watching the $USDX this morning, hovering around 25.58. It's been a tight range, and frankly, it feels like the market's waiting for something to give. With all the noise around upcoming CPI and what the Fed might actually do with rates, this steady-as-she-goes for the dollar index is either a calm before a storm or just pure indecision. I'm keeping a close eye on any breaks below 25.51 or above 25.58; think that'll be the signal for any conviction playing out in the majors, especially against the Euro.

That last CPI print really caught my eye. While headline numbers showed a bit of a deceleration, the stickiness in core inflation, particularly services, is still concerning. It feels like the market's been trying to price in a Fed pivot for months now, but every time we get a data point like this, it just pushes that expectation further out. I'm starting to think the 'higher for longer' narrative has more legs than many bulls want to admit, at least for the short to medium term. The fed fund futures still show some cuts priced in for later next year, but I'm questioning that conviction now.

From a positioning standpoint, this has me re-evaluating my watchlist. I've been trimming some of the more rate-sensitive growth names and looking harder at sectors that might benefit from a sustained inflationary environment or companies with strong pricing power. Also keeping a close eye on the bond market; the yield curve inversion has been a pretty reliable signal historically, and if the Fed keeps pushing rates up, that inversion could deepen further. Not making any drastic moves yet, but definitely shifting my focus towards more defensive plays and solid balance sheets. Still watching the yen, with $Y trading around 847.79, it's interesting to see if BOJ intervention becomes a real possibility down the line given global rate differentials.

Watching $ADBE trading at $264.02 and thinking about its move today. While it's only a ~2.4% dip, seeing some of the broader software sector also taking a breather makes me wonder if this is just typical profit-taking after a decent run, or if there's a subtle sentiment shift brewing. Keeping an eye on other high-multiple tech names to see if this weakness persists beyond just today's action, as it could signal a broader rotation.

Bit of a head-scratcher with crude today, seeing $USO up +1.26% at 126.6, especially after the run we've had. It's not a massive spike, but it's enough to keep me thinking about the inflation narrative. Every time oil gets a sustained push, it's like a little alarm bell for the Fed, right? It makes their job of bringing inflation down that much harder, or at least prolongs the 'higher for longer' rate rhetoric.

I'm still looking for clarity on the path of rates, and crude's stickiness at these levels doesn't really help paint a clearer picture. It's keeping me fairly defensive, mostly focused on quality names that can weather continued economic uncertainty. Not making any big moves yet, but definitely keeping a close eye on the energy sector and how that filters down into broader economic data. It just feels like one of those indicators that, if it starts to really run, could throw a wrench into any soft-landing hopes.

Fed talk about 'higher for longer' is getting tiresome, but it's clearly still driving the boat. We saw a decent bounce in the dollar today, and it feels like the market is still very much in a wait-and-see mode for any definitive pivot signals. I'm keeping an eye on how this strength plays out against some of the more exotic pairs. The $HKD at 1.77, up 4.73% today, is certainly something to watch; feels like an outlier move that might signal some underlying pressure or a chase for yield somewhere.

My watchlist is still heavily weighted towards names that can perform in a higher rate environment, or at least aren't crushed by it. Tech is looking wobbly on these renewed rate concerns, so I'm focusing on more defensive plays or very strong balance sheets. Commodities are still on the radar too, if this dollar strength eventually plateaus. Not really looking at anything like $CRV or $TOP right now, those feel a bit too speculative for the current macro backdrop.

Considering the recent hawkish rhetoric and sticky inflation data, I'd put the odds of the Fed signaling a higher-for-longer rate stance at their March meeting at around 70%, which could pressure assets like $ETHUSD back towards the $1800 level by month-end.

I'm giving it about a 65% chance the Fed signals a more dovish stance by month-end, which could push $XOP to challenge the 185 level, especially if crude inventories continue their drawdowns.

The $ASML action today, hovering around 1844.08, is interesting given the broader tech sentiment. It hasn't quite broken out of its recent range despite some overall market strength, which makes me wonder if there's more caution creeping into semis than headlines suggest. I'm keeping it on my watchlist as a bellwether for the rest of the chip sector's conviction.

Watching $CADUSD today, that 0.51% jump is interesting, especially with it pushing the daily high to 0.72103. Been thinking a lot about the upcoming CPI data next week and how a stronger CAD might influence the BoC's outlook. On one hand, a stronger currency could help temper imported inflation, but then you've got oil still a wild card. Just curious to see if this CAD move is seen as a durable trend or more of a short-term bounce. How are others weighing this against their own expectations for Canadian inflation?

Still trying to connect the dots on how this might filter down to sector plays. Nothing concrete on $ROSE, but generally, I'm watching industrials and materials closely if the BoC narrative starts to shift from aggressive tightening.

Watching $VNM today with that 2.05% dip to 17.16. It's interesting timing, especially as we're heading into a week with a few Fed officials slated to speak. I'm wondering if some of this selling is just general risk-off ahead of potential hawkish rhetoric, or if there's something more specific brewing that I'm missing regarding the Vietnam market itself. Definitely keeping it on the watchlist for a potential bounce if the tone isn't overly aggressive.

Watching $SI make a decent move today, currently up +1.82% at 19.58, despite some of the recent hawkish Fed commentary. It makes me wonder if the market's starting to price in a bit more macro uncertainty, or if it's more about specific industrial demand creeping back into the picture.

Been reflecting on the current market dynamics, especially with the Fed's next move looming. Considering the recent employment figures and the sticky inflation readings, even with some moderation, I'm leaning towards a higher probability of the Fed holding rates steady in June. I'd put the odds of a pause at around 70-75%. My reasoning is that while the hawkish rhetoric has softened, the data isn't screaming for a cut, and they'll want to avoid any perception of premature easing that could reignite inflationary pressures. This could mean continued strength for the dollar, particularly against major crosses like $EURUSD, which has been showing some underlying weakness. The bond market seems to be pricing in a pause, but a hawkish hold could still surprise some on the shorter end of the curve, potentially pushing yields up slightly further. If we see $SI maintain its current momentum, around $20.73, that could also suggest a flight to safety or a belief that rate cuts are further out than anticipated, bolstering the dollar's position.

Watching the PCE data closely this week after the CPI came in a bit hotter than expected. I'm leaning towards the Fed staying firm on 'higher for longer' messaging, even if the core PCE shows some cooling. I'd put the odds at about 65% that we don't get any dovish pivots from Powell, purely based on their recent rhetoric and the need to truly cement inflation expectations downwards. I think any significant rally across risk assets like crypto ($LUNA, $CRV) would likely be short-lived if the Fed maintains its hawkish stance.

The recent movement in $EURCAD has been interesting to say the least, especially seeing it dip to 1.6049 today, trading pretty tight within its daily range. We’ve seen some decent CAD strength building, which I think is a reflection of the market perhaps bracing for a more hawkish tone from the BoC or at least better-than-expected CPI numbers coming out soon. It's not a massive move, but the consistent pressure downwards after testing slightly higher levels does suggest underlying sentiment is shifting.

I'm not jumping in yet, but this dynamic is definitely on my watchlist for potential plays against the CAD, particularly if we get a surprise in the upcoming CPI data. If the numbers come in hotter than expected, I could see that 1.60367 support level being a key area to watch for a break, potentially signaling further CAD appreciation. Conversely, a soft CPI might give us a bounce back towards the higher end of today's range. Positioning now feels premature without that data, but the setup is intriguing.

Interesting price action today with $USO pulling back almost 1.8% to 125.03, even as some of the broader market, particularly tech, shows resilience. This isn't a huge move for oil, but it does make me wonder if we're seeing some early signs of demand-side pressure starting to factor in, or if it's just normal profit-taking after a decent run. The geopolitical risk premium is still there, but perhaps the market is weighing it less heavily against potential economic headwinds.

Conversely, $ASML closed up 2.09% at 1847.9, showing impressive strength within a sector that's been a bellwether for technological progress and, to some extent, future economic growth. This divergence makes my watchlist positioning a bit more nuanced. I'm keeping a close eye on the bond market's reaction tomorrow, especially with any Fed commentary potentially shifting rate expectations. If oil continues to soften, and semiconductor strength holds, it might signal a rotation back into growth names, assuming inflation pressures are seen as moderating. The interplay between these two — commodity-driven inflation fears versus tech-driven growth optimism — is going to be key in shaping macro narratives for the next few quarters. My current focus is less on opening new positions and more on risk management around existing ones, especially in anything tied directly to energy input costs.

Seems like every time Powell opens his mouth these days, the market decides to have an existential crisis about 'higher for longer.' You'd think we'd be used to it by now, but the latest CPI print, while not a disaster, still has the chatterbox buzzing about delaying rate cuts. For me, that just reinforces the need to keep a tight leash on anything too growth-dependent. I've been watching $LDO, which is up a bit today (+0.55% at 0.291), but even that feels like treading water in this environment. The real question is how long can value continue to outperform before the narrative completely flips. I'm keeping a few industrials on my watchlist, but with the dollar still relatively strong, it's a constant recalibration. Anyone else feeling like they're playing financial whack-a-mole right now?

Watching the yield curve. The 2s10s spread is screaming inversion, and frankly, I'm getting a little more concerned than a few months back. We've had some significant moves in the longer end, and while short-term rates are still being dictated by Fed talk, the market seems to be pricing in a rougher landing. It's hard to ignore a persistent inversion like this, and it's making me really scrutinize the more cyclical plays on my watchlist. Any thoughts on where the break happens, or if it even has to break with current global dynamics? $Y is trading around 847.79, and that stability there seems... detached, given everything else.

It's always a treat to watch the Fed navigate what feels like a constant game of economic whack-a-mole. With $SI currently showing some bounce at 19.61, it's worth considering how persistent this move might be given the broader macro backdrop. We're seeing a slight uptick, but the real question is whether this translates into a sustained breakout above the 20 handle. I'd put the odds of silver breaking and holding above $20 by month-end at around 40%, perhaps slightly higher if we get another round of 'soft landing' rhetoric that boosts overall risk sentiment, but the headwinds from continued hawkish signaling remain significant. My reasoning is fairly straightforward: while there's a good argument for inflation hedges, the market's current obsession with the terminal rate tends to overshadow other narratives. If the jobs numbers stay robust, it's hard to see the Fed pivoting, which keeps a lid on risk assets that aren't purely defensive. Still, that 20 level always seems to be a magnet, doesn't it?

The current run in $EMXC feels a bit stretched given upcoming inflation data globally. While today's close at 96.83 shows strength, I'd give it around a 60% chance of dipping back to the 95.00 handle by the end of the month. Sustained higher rates in developed markets are likely to temper enthusiasm for emerging ex-China assets, even with the recent momentum.

Interesting to see $EURCAD holding around 1.60737 even after the recent Canadian employment data, makes me wonder if there's more room for CAD to run or if this is a good spot for a bit of a bounce back. Definitely keeping an eye on that 1.60 handle.