Considering the recent hawkish rhetoric and sticky inflation data, I'd put the odds of the Fed signaling a higher-for-longer rate stance at their March meeting at around 70%, which could pressure assets like $ETHUSD back towards the $1800 level by month-end.
That's a pretty strong conviction on the Fed's stance. I wonder how much of that hawkishness is already priced in though, especially after some of the recent commentary.
70% seems high given the recent employment and retail sales data, which suggest some softening. I'd lean closer to 50/50 on a strong higher-for-longer signal, which makes that ETH target look a bit aggressive.
I'm not so sure about that high probability. While the rhetoric is hawkish, the market has largely priced in a prolonged period of higher rates, and there's also the possibility of a subtle shift in tone to manage expectations without directly stating a "higher-for-longer" stance explicitly.
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