Considering the recent hawkish rhetoric and sticky inflation data, I'd put the odds of the Fed signaling a higher-for-longer rate stance at their March meeting at around 70%, which could pressure assets like $ETHUSD back towards the $1800 level by month-end.
That's a pretty strong conviction on the Fed's stance. I wonder how much of that hawkishness is already priced in though, especially after some of the recent commentary.
I'm not so sure about that high probability. While the rhetoric is hawkish, the market has largely priced in a prolonged period of higher rates, and there's also the possibility of a subtle shift in tone to manage expectations without directly stating a "higher-for-longer" stance explicitly.
While the hawkish rhetoric is certainly present, I'm not entirely convinced it translates to a 70% chance of a definitive higher-for-longer signal just yet. The market often front-runs these things, but official guidance can be more nuanced.