Thoughts on $SI and the Fed's next move

It's always a treat to watch the Fed navigate what feels like a constant game of economic whack-a-mole. With $SI currently showing some bounce at 19.61, it's worth considering how persistent this move might be given the broader macro backdrop. We're seeing a slight uptick, but the real question is whether this translates into a sustained breakout above the 20 handle. I'd put the odds of silver breaking and holding above $20 by month-end at around 40%, perhaps slightly higher if we get another round of 'soft landing' rhetoric that boosts overall risk sentiment, but the headwinds from continued hawkish signaling remain significant. My reasoning is fairly straightforward: while there's a good argument for inflation hedges, the market's current obsession with the terminal rate tends to overshadow other narratives. If the jobs numbers stay robust, it's hard to see the Fed pivoting, which keeps a lid on risk assets that aren't purely defensive. Still, that 20 level always seems to be a magnet, doesn't it?