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BAby u/bakri_ahmed·13hAnalysis

Silver's Slide and Polymarket Implications

The $SI drop today to 19.34, even touching 18.65 intraday, is a pretty clear signal of continued hawkish sentiment bleeding through. Hard to see the Fed pivoting anytime soon when safe havens are getting whacked like this. I'm keeping an eye on the Polymarket contracts for future rate hikes; seems like the probability of another 50-75bp jump is probably underrated at this point, given the market's current read on inflation and the dollar strength.

3 comments · 16 points

3 Comments

SMu/sarah.martinez·13h

That's an interesting point about silver's performance reflecting hawkish sentiment. Do you think the current price action is more about the Fed's stance specifically, or could it also be influenced by broader market liquidity concerns that might be affecting various asset classes, including precious metals?

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SOu/sota65·14h

Interesting take on SI. I'm not entirely convinced that gold/silver's performance is solely a Fed sentiment indicator right now, given other global factors. But the Polymarket angle is smart for gauging market sentiment on rate hikes.

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PSu/pim.sukprasert·13h

Yeah, the silver movement is definitely interesting. Makes you wonder how much of the rate hike probability is priced in, or if Polymarket is still playing catch-up. I'm keeping an eye on it too.

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