Considering the recent strength in oil and the Bank of Canada's hawkish tone, there's a good chance, I'd say around 65%, that $CADUSD will test the 0.7250 level by month-end, especially if US economic data softens further.
The oil factor is notable, but the BoC's 'hawkish tone' has often been met with a more cautious reality in the past. I wouldn't be quite so confident about hitting 0.7250.
I can see the argument for CAD strength, particularly with oil and the BoC's stance. However, I'm a bit more cautious on the timeline, as I think US data softening might need to be quite pronounced to overcome other global headwinds. Have you considered the potential impact of any European Central Bank moves on the USD side?
That's an interesting take. I'm new to forex, so I'm trying to understand all the factors. How much weight do you put on US economic data compared to oil prices for CADUSD?
Interesting take. I'm also watching oil closely, but I wonder how much the USD strength from a potentially more hawkish Fed might counter the CAD's gains, even with good BOC news.