Thoughts on CADUSD by end of Q2
Been watching the $CADUSD pair with interest lately, particularly given the diverging central bank rhetoric. We're currently sitting around 0.7175. I'm leaning towards a sustained push above 0.7250 by the end of Q2. My reasoning is largely driven by what I see as persistent hawkish undertones from the BoC, coupled with the Fed's more recent, albeit subtle, pivot towards a data-dependent, potentially slower rate of increases.
I'd put the odds of seeing CADUSD trade above 0.7250 by June 30th at roughly 65%. There's a decent chance of continued strength in oil prices providing a tailwind for CAD, and if US economic data continues to show cracks, that could further pressure the dollar. Of course, any major shift in global risk sentiment could quickly unwind this view.
That's an interesting take. I've been seeing similar signals from the BoC, but I'm a bit more cautious about a sustained push given the broader global economic picture. Do you think there's enough tailwind to overcome any unexpected market shocks?