Thoughts on CADUSD holding 0.7200 amidst recent moves

Been watching $CADUSD pretty closely this week, and it's holding up around the 0.72065 mark today, which is interesting given some of the broader USD strength we've seen. We saw it dip slightly earlier, bottoming out around 0.72, and the high was only 0.72124, so it's been pretty range-bound.

My take is that we'll likely see $CADUSD test the lower end of that 0.7200 support again by the end of next week. I'd put the odds of it touching 0.7180 within the next 7-10 trading days at about 60%. The reasoning is primarily a combination of continued hawkish leanings from the Fed, even if they're playing coy, and some of the recent Canadian economic data not being strong enough to give the BoC much room to maneuver aggressively. If we get any surprising uptick in US jobless claims or a dip in retail, that could obviously shift things, but based on current trajectories, the path of least resistance feels slightly lower for CAD. This isn't a trade call, just an observation of potential near-term price action based on the current market dynamics.