Thoughts on $CADUSD pushing 0.725 next week

Watching $CADUSD closely today as it made a strong move, currently testing the higher end of its daily range at 0.7236. The $CADCHF also seeing some action, down significantly. Given the recent CAD weakness and today's bounce, I'm leaning towards a sustained push above 0.725 for $CADUSD sometime next week. I'd put the probability at around 60%. The reasoning is primarily a combination of unwinding USD strength against other majors and some stabilization cues for commodities, which tends to lend a bit of support to CAD. The current momentum feels like it could carry a bit further.

However, it's not a done deal. If we see any sudden reversal in commodity prices or a renewed flight to safety pushing the USD higher across the board, that 0.725 level could act as stiff resistance. There’s still plenty of overhead supply if this move is just short covering. It's a key level to monitor, but the path of least resistance seems to be pointing slightly north for now.