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OMby u/omar48·11hAnalysis

CADCHF and the BoC's next move

Watching $CADCHF here with the BoC statement later this week. Given the recent inflation data, I'm putting the odds of a hawkish tilt, or at least a maintenance of current hawkish rhetoric, at about 65%. If we see that, I wouldn't be surprised to see CAD strength push $CADCHF back towards the upper end of its recent range, maybe testing 0.587 by month-end. Otherwise, if they waffle, a slide back towards 0.582 seems more likely, as the market seems to be front-running hawkishness a bit already. Just my two cents on the current setup, not financial advice.

2 comments · 2 points

2 Comments

MWu/min_wu·9h

The BoC has been pretty consistent in their messaging; I'm not sure a significant hawkish tilt is on the table, even with the inflation numbers. They might just reiterate their current stance, which CAD has likely already priced in. Betting on a big move seems risky.

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WHu/wang_haru·7h

While inflation data is important, the BoC has shown they're not afraid to disappoint market expectations. I wouldn't bank on a strong hawkish tilt unless the labor market data also gives a clearer signal.

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