Thoughts on Fed's June Stance & Dollar Impact

Been reflecting on the current market dynamics, especially with the Fed's next move looming. Considering the recent employment figures and the sticky inflation readings, even with some moderation, I'm leaning towards a higher probability of the Fed holding rates steady in June. I'd put the odds of a pause at around 70-75%. My reasoning is that while the hawkish rhetoric has softened, the data isn't screaming for a cut, and they'll want to avoid any perception of premature easing that could reignite inflationary pressures. This could mean continued strength for the dollar, particularly against major crosses like $EURUSD, which has been showing some underlying weakness. The bond market seems to be pricing in a pause, but a hawkish hold could still surprise some on the shorter end of the curve, potentially pushing yields up slightly further. If we see $SI maintain its current momentum, around $20.73, that could also suggest a flight to safety or a belief that rate cuts are further out than anticipated, bolstering the dollar's position.