Fundamental Market Analysis for September 16, 2026 GBPUSD
Event to watch today:
09:00 EET. GBP - Consumer Price Index
15:30 EET. USD - Change in Retail Sales
21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Interest Rate Decision
GBPUSD:
A month without swaps on majors!
The pound approaches the session with weakened internal support following fresh UK labor market data. Wage growth excluding bonuses slowed to 3.5%, job vacancies fell to 702 thousand, and employment on payrolls decreased in August. This backdrop reduces pressure on the Bank of England from wages and limits arguments for accelerated policy tightening.
Today, the market awaits UK inflation data for August, and on Thursday, the Bank of England's decision. Consensus expects headline inflation to accelerate to 3.1%, but the regulator is widely expected to keep rates unchanged. Expensive oil creates a double risk: it intensifies price pressures, but for an energy importer, it increases costs for businesses and households, dampening economic activity.
On the external side, the dollar retains its advantage ahead of the Fed's decision amid high US bond yields and a rate hike that is almost fully priced in. Stronger UK inflation could support the pound, but a weak labor market reduces the likelihood that the local factor will consistently outweigh the dollar's momentum. Under current conditions, the priority remains a decline in GBP/USD.
Trading idea: SELL 1.3480, SL 1.3515, TP 1.3400
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