Don't fall in love with a narrative in EM FX

Biggest mistake I've made consistently in EM is getting too attached to a macro narrative. You read all the reports, see the "structural tailwinds" or "improving fundamentals," and build a strong conviction. Then you size up, because this time it's different. I was bullish $ZAR a few years back, pre-COVID, convinced the Cyril Ramaphosa story was going to play out into a stronger rand. The reforms were there, the narrative solid. I scaled into it, ignored the price action telling me otherwise, and then got absolutely clobbered when the global risk-off hit and all the domestic issues that were supposedly 'priced in' came roaring back. Ended up taking a massive loss because I let conviction override risk management and ignored the very real political and commodity price sensitivity that defines EM currencies. Should have been more tactical, recognized the shifts faster, and cut bait. Lesson learned: EM often moves on sentiment and global flows more than your meticulously crafted fundamental story. Adapt or get run over.