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GBby u/gold_bug_omar·2dDiscussion

EM FX - When the macro shift is faster than you think

One time, I was holding onto a decent long position in a certain EM currency, let's just say it was hypothetical $BRL, against the dollar, betting on a continued commodity rally and better fiscal outlook. Things were going well for a bit, then the global risk sentiment shifted hard and fast, and I was slow to react, convinced my original thesis would hold. Ended up giving back most of my unrealized gains and then some because I let conviction override the market's clear message to derisk. Taught me to respect rapid shifts in broader macro themes, especially in EM, and not just cling to the microstory once the tide turns.

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