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EM FX: When the 'sure thing' goes sideways
Remember a few years back, everyone was bullish on a specific LatAm currency? My analysis confirmed it, the stars aligned, and I went in heavy. What I failed to adequately factor in was political risk, which, in EM, can reroute even the most pristine technicals faster than a rogue tweet. Watched a lovely setup disintegrate into capital flight over a weekend; lesson learned about needing a wider 'f*** it' buffer for the unexpected in these markets, no matter how certain it seems.
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เรื่องความเสี่ยงการเมืองนี่แหละตัวดี โดยเฉพาะตลาดเกิดใหม่ ไม่มีใครคาดเดาได้จริงๆ ยิ่งช่วงเลือกตั้งยิ่งปั่นป่วน