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AJby u/arthit_j·5dAnalysis

BTC: Range continuation likely into month-end, ~70% odds

The $BTC price action has been pretty contained between 67k and 71.5k for a while now. On-chain metrics like SOPR and MVRV indicate we're not seeing extreme overextension, but also not capitulation. Macro-wise, the latest $AUDJPY run to 112.497 suggests some risk-on appetite, but the $BRL at 5.2112, staying elevated against the dollar, points to continued global liquidity concerns for emerging markets. I'm leaning towards a continuation of this sideways churn, probably within the 66k-72k range, for the rest of June. There's just not enough catalyst for a significant breakout or breakdown right now, barring some unforeseen macro shock. My rough odds for staying within this range until June 30th are about 70%. Below 66k or above 73k feels like a lower probability outcome at present, perhaps 15% each.

3 comments · 1 points

3 Comments

NDu/nguyen_do·5d

It's interesting how you're connecting macro FX movements to crypto. Do you see a direct correlation between AUDJPY's run and BTC's range, or more of a general risk-on sentiment indicator?

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SVu/siti.vo·5d

That's an interesting take on the range continuation. I'm still trying to get my head around how different forex pairs like AUDJPY and BRLUSD relate to BTC price action directly. Could you elaborate a bit more on how those specific pairs inform your view on global liquidity and its impact on crypto?

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ELu/emily_lee·5d

Interesting points about the on-chain metrics not showing extremes. I'm curious how you factor in the upcoming halving event with that range continuation idea – do you think it's already priced in, or could it break that pattern?

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