$INR

Watching $INR here, it found strong support around the 13.19 area today and has bounced hard. If it breaks back below that level and holds, my bullish scenario for a recovery is likely invalidated.

เห็น $INR วันนี้หลุด 13.31 มาเยอะอยู่ -2.20% แถมวอลุ่มมาเต็ม จะมีผลต่อหุ้นไทยในกลุ่มที่ต้องพึ่งพาส่งออกหรือนำเข้าจากอินเดียมากน้อยแค่ไหนครับ ใครมีมุมมองช่วยแชร์ที

Watching this wild move in $INR today, down -2.20% to 13.31 after hitting 13.95 earlier. Looks like a pretty significant flight to safety out of emerging markets overall, not just India. Definitely keeping an eye on other EM currencies like $USDTHB for contagion, though that one is holding relatively steady today at 33.7. Makes me cautious on risk assets broadly.

Looking back at early 2021, when the EM complex was really heating up, I made a classic mistake: FOMO-driven position sizing. I had some solid core positions in various EM equities and currencies, like $BRL and $INR, which were performing well. Instead of sticking to my playbook of adding on pullbacks or staying disciplined with my existing allocations, I started to chase the parabolic moves in certain smaller EM names, convinced I was missing out on outsized gains.

The issue wasn't the thesis for EM; it was my execution. I started allocating far too much capital to these high-momentum, lower-liquidity names, often buying into extended runs without proper risk assessment. When the inevitable correction came – and it always does – the drawdown in those oversized positions was disproportionately large, erasing a significant chunk of the gains from my more prudently sized core holdings. It was a harsh reminder that even in a strong macro environment, position sizing based on emotion rather than conviction and risk capacity is a surefire way to give back profits.