INR Range by End of Month — My Take

Alright, looking at the $INR movement today, currently at 12.74, and the intraday range we've seen (12.6039–13.16), it’s not exactly a picture of stability. There’s a clear underlying push and pull here that suggests it's not going to just settle down easily.

My take for the end of the month is we'll see $INR trading within a range of 12.50 to 13.00. I put the odds of that happening at about 70%. The downside seems pretty well supported around that 12.50 mark; every dip below has been met with buyers. Conversely, the 13.00 level appears to be a stiff resistance that's held multiple times. Any break higher would likely need a significant catalyst that isn't currently priced in. We're oscillating in a channel, and until there's a strong macro shock or a definitive shift in policy, that channel is going to hold. Traders are clearly happy to play both sides of that range, buying the dips and selling into strength. Just my two cents on where we're headed.