$UGAZ

Been watching the Kalshi events for some time, and it feels like a lot of the higher-volume contracts, especially around things like CPI or Fed rate hikes, are priced in far too efficiently, almost mirroring what you'd expect from the spot market. Where's the edge?

It makes me wonder if the real play isn't in these big macro events, but rather in niche, less-covered markets where the information asymmetry might actually be exploitable. For instance, comparing the spreads on something like a $UGAZ movement versus a Kalshi contract on a specific energy report. Or even currency pairs, trying to model if $USDCAD will close above 1.41. Am I missing something crucial about how others are finding value in the macro events, or is the edge just incredibly thin there? Push back if you think I'm off base.

Been dabbling in some commodity ETFs recently, specifically the leveraged ones like $UGAZ or $USLV when I'm feeling a bit more confident in a short-term direction. My concern is around proper risk sizing, especially with the daily rebalancing impact. I know the general rule of not risking more than X% of your account on any one trade, but with these leveraged products, the position size needed to maintain that seems to shift constantly. How do you guys factor in the decay and compounding in your risk models for these, or do you just treat them more like short-term, higher-conviction plays with tighter stops?