Odds on $EEM closing below 65.00 by month-end

Looking at the current price action in emerging markets, specifically $EEM sitting at 65.825, I'm leaning towards a greater than even chance we see it close below 65.00 before the month is out. My rough odds are about 60%. The general sentiment, coupled with what's happening in China ($SSE being hammered, down nearly 20% today), suggests continued pressure. We're not seeing significant buying interest step in at these levels, and global growth concerns are still very much in play. Unless we get a major policy pivot or some unexpected positive news out of Beijing, the path of least resistance seems to be down.

While $UGAZ isn't directly correlated, the fact that some of these more speculative assets are just flatlining or showing weak bounces reinforces the general cautious market tone. I'd be surprised if $EEM found a strong enough bid to hold above 65.00 for the next week and a half.