EEM holding 64.50 by month-end - what are the odds?

Looking at the recent action in $EEM, particularly today's low of 64.465, I'm thinking about the likelihood of it closing out May above the 64.50 mark. We've seen a pretty consistent downward drift, and while there's intraday volatility, the overall sentiment seems to be pushing it lower. I'd put the odds of it finishing the month below 64.50 at roughly 65-70%. There isn't enough strength to negate the headwinds, and any bounce seems more likely to be sold into than sustained. What are others seeing in the charts or the underlying EM fundamentals that might challenge that view?