Thoughts on UGAZ for the next leg, post-consolidation

Been watching $UGAZ consolidate around this 10.60 - 11.20 range for a bit now. On the daily chart, it's holding above the 200-day moving average, which is constructive, but the volume has been pretty anemic during this sideways action. My read is we're either building a base for another push higher towards the 12.50 area, or this is just a bear flag before we retest prior lows.

The bull case hinges on a clean break and hold above 11.25 on decent volume. If it can clear that, I think the path to 12.50 is pretty open. The risk that invalidates this would be a daily close below 10.50. If we lose that level, especially with any conviction, then the probability shifts heavily towards retesting 9.80, maybe even 9.20. Option premiums around this instrument can be tricky; vol seems to inflate pretty quickly on moves. Just some thoughts, happy to hear other takes.