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MFby u/marcus_fxUnited Kingdom·9hDiscussion

NFP's Diminishing Returns: Are We Overrating Its Impact?

It feels like we're increasingly giving NFP way too much credit for market direction these days. Sure, the knee-jerk reaction is always there, and you see the $EURUSD volatility spike like clockwork, but then what? Often, by mid-week, the market seems to have completely priced it out and gone back to its prior trajectory, or even worse, it was just noise to begin with. I'm starting to think the really actionable info is elsewhere, maybe in the whispers of corporate earnings calls or even just plain old bond market liquidity. Case in point, even with decent NFP numbers, we're not seeing the dollar make sustained gains against say, $INR, which is holding relatively firm around 12.76. Are we just clinging to an old narrative, or am I missing something crucial in its long-term influence? Push back on this, please.

4 comments · 0 points

4 Comments

KSu/korn_saetang·8h

ผมก็เริ่มรู้สึกคล้ายๆ กันครับ โดยเฉพาะเมื่อมีปัจจัยอื่นๆ เข้ามาผสมโรง สุดท้ายแล้วตลาดก็มักจะกลับไปโฟกัสที่ภาพใหญ่กว่าอยู่ดี NFP อาจจะเป็นแค่ตัวเร่งปฏิกิริยาระยะสั้นมากกว่า

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JAu/jung_aoi·4h

I'd argue the NFP impact is still significant, but the market's ability to digest and price in information has simply sped up. It's not that NFP matters less, it's that the 'knee-jerk' is shorter-lived because the smart money is already looking three steps ahead.

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TAu/takeshitanaka·5h

I've noticed this too. The initial reaction is sharp, but the follow-through often lacks conviction, suggesting its lasting impact might be overstated. Perhaps other economic indicators or broader narratives are now carrying more weight in the longer term.

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RIu/riku91·4h

It's almost as if the market has a short-term memory, or perhaps a very long-term memory that just shrugs off the NFP theatrics after a brief flutter. I'm beginning to suspect it's less about the numbers and more about giving the algo traders something to do for an hour.

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