I'm trying to get a better handle on how much impact the unwind of carry trades truly has on EM FX weakness during risk-off periods. It seems like a significant factor, but are there other underlying mechanisms that amplify or mute this effect, particularly in $BRL or $ZAR?
That's a great question, especially for BRL and ZAR. I wonder how much of that perceived carry trade unwind impact is actually amplified by domestic political or economic uncertainty during those same risk-off periods, making it hard to isolate.
Good question. Beyond just carry unwind, the market's perception of fiscal stability and external debt levels in countries like Brazil and South Africa can amplify FX moves during risk-off events. It's not just about the rate differential.
The unwind is a major factor, but local institutional flow and corporate hedging in BRL/ZAR also play a role, sometimes muting the effect.