Watching HKD strength vs. broader EM picture
It's interesting to see $HKD firm up again today, trading around 1.67, even as the broader $USDX pushed slightly higher. This resilience in HKD, especially against a backdrop of ongoing concerns in mainland China and the property sector, feels like a bit of an outlier. It makes me wonder if there's a specific capital flow narrative at play, perhaps a haven bid within Asia itself, or simply the carry trade reasserting itself in a low volatility environment.
My watchlist is still heavily skewed towards identifying value in EM ex-China, but this $HKD move has me re-evaluating where capital might be rotating within the region. It's a reminder that not all EM tells the same story, and localized dynamics can sometimes diverge sharply from the overall EM beta.
Good point. The HKD peg means they're effectively importing US monetary policy. Could be that rate differentials are finally starting to bite, or the carry trade is unwinding for some funds.