Thoughts on $VNM and the EM rebound post-CPI
Watching $VNM today, that +4.20% move to 17.87 off the back of a fairly flat $CPI print is interesting. We've seen a lot of folks worried about inflation pressure stalling EM growth, but this $CPI at 25.6047 feels like it's giving some room to breathe. My gut tells me we're looking at a decent chance for $VNM to test 18.50 by month-end, maybe 60% probability. The reasoning is that with the inflation scare potentially fading a bit, and a decent floor established around 17.68, there's likely some sidelined capital looking to redeploy into EM. Of course, any major shift in the macro narrative globally, or unexpected hawkishness from central banks, could derail that pretty quick. But for now, the path of least resistance feels like a grind higher.
A single CPI print doesn't automatically derisk the entire EM space, especially for something as niche as VNM. There's more to it than just that number. 18.50 by month-end seems aggressive on this news alone.