Thoughts on VNM's path to 18 by Q3

Been watching $VNM recently, currently sitting at 17.15. The recent uptick is notable, but what's really catching my eye are the underlying sector trends. While the daily range has been tight (17.12–17.235 today), the macro tailwinds for the industries VNM represents seem to be strengthening, particularly with the recent shift in global manufacturing sentiment.

I'm leaning towards VNM hitting the 18 mark sometime before the end of Q3. I'd put the probability of that occurring at around 65-70%. My reasoning is primarily centered on the increasing demand signals coming out of Asia, coupled with a general risk-on appetite returning to emerging markets. There's also some chatter about potential policy support for these sectors in the coming months, which could act as a further catalyst. The key risk, as always, is any unforeseen slowdown in global trade or a significant geopolitical event that could dampen market sentiment. Otherwise, the current trajectory suggests a reasonable chance of reaching that next psychological level.