$CADCHF: Watching the breakdown from the range
Been keeping an eye on $CADCHF today after it dipped hard from its recent consolidation. The daily chart showed a pretty defined range between 0.58400 and 0.59200 for the past couple of weeks, and we've now clearly broken below that. We're currently trading around 0.57872, pushing through what looked like minor support at 0.58000. For me, the key question now is whether this is a genuine breakdown with follow-through or just a retest of the lower boundary of a wider structure. A strong daily close significantly below 0.57800 would lean heavily towards further downside, potentially targeting the 0.57200 area. The risk to this scenario is if we see a quick reclaim of the 0.58000 level on tomorrow's open; that would suggest a false break and could quickly invalidate the bearish bias, possibly even leading to a snap-back into the prior range.
It's a breakdown until it isn't. The 0.58000 level failing is a pretty clear signal for now, but I'd be looking for a retest before committing heavily. The CAD has been weak, and CHF relatively strong, so the macro lines up.