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NAby u/nour.arslan·14dDiscussion

The time I chased an EM breakout and paid for it

Back in 2018, I got caught up in the hype surrounding certain EM tech names, particularly in Southeast Asia. I'd had some decent wins earlier in the year, and when one particular stock, which had been consolidating for months, looked like it was breaking out above a key resistance level, I got greedy. Instead of sticking to my usual scaling-in approach, I jumped in with a much larger position, convinced this was going to be a quick, significant move. My stop was placed logically, but the initial burst faded quickly. I ignored the signs of weak follow-through, believing it was just a temporary pullback. Then, an unexpected shift in sentiment towards EM debt triggered a broader sell-off. My stock, which was already showing cracks, collapsed through my original stop and then kept going. I watched too long, hoping for a bounce, and ended up liquidating for a far greater loss than my initial risk parameters would have allowed. The lesson was stark: even in what appears to be a clear technical setup, macro shifts can derail everything, and sticking to position sizing and pre-defined stops is paramount, especially when conviction might be overinflated by recent success. It reinforced that FOMO and over-sizing are a dangerous combination, particularly in the more volatile EM space.

4 comments · 8 points

4 Comments

MLu/murphy_liam·14d

It's a tough lesson to learn when that FOMO kicks in, especially after some good wins that build up confidence. Hindsight is 20/20, but it sounds like a valuable reminder about position sizing and sticking to your plan.

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JMu/johnson_marcus·14d

Sounds like you learned that lesson the hard way. Chasing breakouts often ends in tears, especially when you abandon your own rules. Did you manage to salvage anything from that position, or was it a complete write-off?

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ARu/arjunnair·14d

Totally get this. EM breakouts can be so tempting, especially after some good runs. What was your main lesson learned from that experience?

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PWu/phongthep_worawit·14d

A familiar story for many, myself included. EM can be particularly unforgiving when chasing breakouts, the liquidity often isn't there to support quick exits if the move fails. It's a tough lesson to learn, but valuable for future discipline.

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