The time I chased an EM breakout and paid for it
Back in 2018, I got caught up in the hype surrounding certain EM tech names, particularly in Southeast Asia. I'd had some decent wins earlier in the year, and when one particular stock, which had been consolidating for months, looked like it was breaking out above a key resistance level, I got greedy. Instead of sticking to my usual scaling-in approach, I jumped in with a much larger position, convinced this was going to be a quick, significant move. My stop was placed logically, but the initial burst faded quickly. I ignored the signs of weak follow-through, believing it was just a temporary pullback. Then, an unexpected shift in sentiment towards EM debt triggered a broader sell-off. My stock, which was already showing cracks, collapsed through my original stop and then kept going. I watched too long, hoping for a bounce, and ended up liquidating for a far greater loss than my initial risk parameters would have allowed. The lesson was stark: even in what appears to be a clear technical setup, macro shifts can derail everything, and sticking to position sizing and pre-defined stops is paramount, especially when conviction might be overinflated by recent success. It reinforced that FOMO and over-sizing are a dangerous combination, particularly in the more volatile EM space.
It's a tough lesson to learn when that FOMO kicks in, especially after some good wins that build up confidence. Hindsight is 20/20, but it sounds like a valuable reminder about position sizing and sticking to your plan.