On Kalshi's appeal and the 'wisdom of the crowd' in volatile markets

Been spending some time looking at the Kalshi markets lately, particularly how some of these short-term event contracts are playing out in areas like commodity prices or even crypto. The idea of trading on specific outcomes, rather than just asset price movement, feels like it should offer a clearer edge. You'd think that with a defined 'yes/no' or a tight range, the collective intelligence of the market would coalesce pretty quickly and accurately, especially on events where data is relatively clear.

However, I'm finding myself increasingly questioning how robust this 'wisdom of the crowd' actually is when it comes to truly volatile or sentiment-driven assets. For instance, if you look at the daily ranges on something like $OIL, moving from $28.10 to $28.44 today alone, or even some of the altcoins like $CRV hovering around $0.241, down from its daily high, it makes me wonder if the 'noise' in the underlying asset's volatility just bleeds into the event contract pricing. Are we really seeing a pure signal, or is there still too much speculative fervor influencing the probabilities, even in a regulated environment? It's not about making a direct directional bet on $LDO at $0.304, for example, but rather on an event related to it, and yet the same emotional drivers seem to be at play. Change my mind on this – I'm open to being wrong.