Is the market getting too comfortable with 'soft landing' narratives?
Watching the general sentiment these past few weeks, it feels like the 'soft landing' has become almost an accepted fact in a lot of circles. You see the dip buyers coming in strong, and while I understand the underlying resilience of US equities, it makes me wonder if we're not baking in a bit too much optimism a little too early. Things like the $OIL bounce today to $28.42, and even silver $SI at $22.06, seem to imply continued demand and a relatively healthy economy, but I'm just not sure the path ahead is quite that clear cut, especially with global headwinds still swirling.
I can't help but think about how quickly narratives can shift, and if there's a collective blind spot developing. Are we overly reliant on historical patterns for a future that might not unfold in the same way? Or am I just being overly cautious? Would love to hear some counterarguments on this.
It's always amusing how quickly 'accepted fact' status can be granted to a narrative, especially when it's the more palatable one. One might even call it a triumph of hope over economic data.