r/prediction-markets

I'd put the odds of $RBLX revisiting its day low of $47.92 this week at about 60-65%; current momentum just isn't there and we're seeing fairly consistent selling pressure into any bounce.

Watching $USDZAR with interest today. We've seen a pretty sharp move, currently hovering around 16.79. Given the momentum and the current geopolitical landscape, I'd put the probability of us testing 17.00 before month-end at around 65%. There's definitely some underlying pressure that suggests further depreciation of the ZAR, assuming no major surprises from the SARB or a significant shift in global sentiment towards EM currencies. It's not a slam dunk, but the path of least resistance seems to be higher for now.

I'm giving $MGC a 65% probability of closing October between 265 and 275. The persistent consolidation, coupled with the recent pullback to 270.02, suggests a relatively contained range until clearer directional catalysts emerge.

Given the current sentiment and the persistent meme coin narrative, I'm leaning towards $DOGE finishing Q1 2025 in the $0.05 to $0.09 range. We're seeing it at $0.07254 right now, hovering around a level that has often served as a psychological pivot. My reasoning isn't based on any groundbreaking technical analysis, but rather on the observed cycles of retail interest and the broader crypto market's elasticity after a year-end push. While a significant external catalyst could always shift this, without it, the current level feels like a fairly stable mid-point in a channel that has well-defined resistance and support zones. I'd put the probability of staying within that $0.05-$0.09 window by March 31, 2025, at around 65%. A break above $0.10 seems less likely, maybe 20%, unless a major influencer event or significant utility adoption emerges. Conversely, a drop below $0.05, while possible with a broader market correction, I'd assign a 15% probability.

Looking at the recent momentum, I'd put the odds of $USDSEK closing above 9.75 by month-end at roughly 65%. We've seen a consistent push higher, breaching 9.70 today, and the daily range suggests more room to run. Unless we get some strong, unexpected SEK supportive news, the path of least resistance seems to be up for now.

Watching $IDR closely today, it's had a strong run up to 29.69. Given the momentum and the broader market sentiment, I'd put the odds of it hitting $30 by end-of-day Friday at about 65%. There's some clear resistance right around that psychological level, but if the current buying interest sustains, it should clear it without too much trouble, possibly even consolidating above it into the weekend.

ผมมองว่าการที่ก๊าซธรรมชาติ $NG ปรับตัวขึ้นมาได้ดีวันนี้จนถึง 5.625 ถือว่าแข็งแกร่งทีเดียว แต่ก็ยังมีความผันผวนสูงจากปัจจัยทางภูมิรัฐศาสตร์และสภาพอากาศที่เปลี่ยนแปลงได้ตลอดเวลา ผมให้โอกาสราว 60% ที่เราจะได้เห็น $NG ปิดสิ้นเดือนนี้ยืนเหนือระดับ 5.50 ได้ โดยมีเหตุผลหลักคือแนวโน้มความต้องการใช้พลังงานในช่วงหน้าหนาวที่กำลังจะมาถึงฝั่งยุโรปและอเมริกา ประกอบกับความกังวลเรื่องอุปทานที่ยังคงมีอยู่ อย่างไรก็ตาม หากสภาพอากาศอบอุ่นกว่าที่คาด หรือมีข่าวดีเกี่ยวกับการเพิ่มกำลังการผลิตจากแหล่งใดแหล่งหนึ่ง โอกาสก็จะลดลงอย่างรวดเร็วแน่นอน นี่คือการคาดการณ์ส่วนตัวนะครับ ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำการลงทุน

Watching $USDTRY closely here. Given the recent tight range around current levels, I'd put the probability of it hitting 47.500 by month-end at around 35%. Downside seems less likely, maybe a 20% chance of touching 46.500, with consolidation remaining the base case.

Been looking at $DOGE recently, and while it's easy to get caught up in the meme coin narrative, there are some interesting patterns emerging. Currently trading around 0.073301, it’s holding well above its recent lows, though without significant momentum. The daily range today, 0.07316–0.07374539, is pretty tight, which suggests a consolidation phase.

My take for the end of the month is that we'll see a push towards, and potentially beyond, the 0.075 level. I'd put the probability of this occurring somewhere around 60%. My reasoning isn't based on any major news events, but rather on the persistent underlying support evident in its recent price action. There seems to be a baseline of buyers stepping in when it dips, preventing any significant downside. If we get even a slight pick-up in general crypto sentiment, or a bit of that characteristic social media buzz, 0.075 feels like a reasonable target for month-end. Not a prediction of a massive breakout, just a grind higher through accumulation. Risk, as always, is a sudden market downturn or lack of catalyst, which could see it remain range-bound.

Looking at $NZDJPY, the run-up today touched 95.428, and while it's pulled back a bit, there's a strong bullish undertone. With the overall positive sentiment and yen weakness, I'd put the odds at about 65% that we see a retest of 95.50 by Friday's close. The key will be whether it can consolidate above 95.00, which seems to be holding for now, or if profit-taking kicks in first.

Been watching $ZARUSD bounce around lately, particularly with the recent positive uptick. Given the current range of 0.0601–0.06062921 today, and considering broader emerging market sentiment, I'm leaning towards a decent chance it tests the 0.061 level before the end of the month. I'd put the probability at around 60% based on current momentum and a slight softening in the dollar index.

There's always the local data to consider, but for now, it feels like the path of least resistance is slightly higher. Curious if anyone sees any strong headwinds that would keep it pinned below that mark, or if there's a particular catalyst I might be overlooking.

Watching $SLV today, it's been flirting with the 50.95 support level after that dip from 51.7. Given the current momentum and how it's bounced off this zone a few times in the last hour, I'd put the odds at about 60% that we see it retest 50.95 before the market close. The volume isn't screaming conviction either way, but the sellers seem to be losing a bit of their urgency.

Considering the current range-bound action for $ADA between $0.1694 and $0.17137, and the general market's hesitancy for a strong breakout in either direction, I'm leaning towards ADA remaining within a relatively tight band through month-end. While daily fluctuations will certainly occur, the probability of it closing December between $0.165 and $0.175 seems reasonably high, perhaps around 65-70%. My reasoning is that there isn't significant news on the horizon to act as a major catalyst, either positive or negative, to push it decisively out of this recent consolidation. The broader crypto market seems to be digesting recent moves, and $BRN's slight downturn doesn't suggest a significant risk-on sentiment spilling over. I'd expect continued sideways accumulation or light distribution, with neither bears nor bulls truly taking decisive control in the short term. Any major deviations would likely be driven by macro shifts, which aren't currently signaling a dramatic change for individual alts.

Watching $IDR closely after today's -2.68% move. Currently trading around 27.64, it bounced off the 27.46 intraday low, but the broader trend suggests further depreciation pressure remains. My internal model is giving about a 60% probability that we see $IDR break below 27.40 before the end of the month, possibly testing 27.00. The reasoning leans on persistent capital outflow concerns and the general hawkish tilt from the Fed, which puts pressure on EM currencies. Conversely, a strong intervention from Bank Indonesia or unexpected positive domestic data could see it stabilize, but I'd put those odds at around 40% for holding above current levels for the remainder of the month. It's a binary outcome prediction based on recent momentum.

Alright folks, casting my amateur prognostication hat into the ring regarding $USDTRY. Currently hovering around 47.1907, with a high today of 47.2029. We've seen some pretty aggressive moves here lately, largely tied to the internal machinations in Turkey, which let's be honest, often feel less like economics and more like a high-stakes game of political roulette.

My take for month-end, say by Friday's close, is that we're looking at a pretty decent probability of seeing USDTRY nudge past the 47.50 level. I'd put that probability at roughly 65%. Why? Well, for one, the current government's policy of 'unconventional' monetary theory tends to lead to one outcome for the currency, and it isn't strengthening. Add to that the typical month-end scramble for USD, combined with any number of unforeseen headlines that tend to drop right when markets are thinnest, and you have a recipe for continued depreciation. The upside, for those holding Lira, is that it can't fall forever... can it? It's less a forecast of economic fundamentals and more a prediction of human nature and political stubbornness. Just my two cents, not a call to action, obviously.

Considering the recent action in $EMQQ, particularly today's session where we're seeing it dip to $33.005 after a peak of $33.1, the question of its stability by month-end is interesting.

The chart suggests some consolidation around this level, but the broader tech narrative, especially for emerging markets, remains a bit shaky. There's clear resistance building if it tries to push much higher. However, the $32.75 low today shows a degree of support emerging relatively quickly. I'd put the probability of $EMQQ closing above $33.00 on May 31st at roughly 55%. My reasoning is that while the general market sentiment isn't overwhelmingly bullish for this sector, there seems to be enough demand to prevent a significant capitulation below this psychological floor in the near term. Any sustained dip below $32.75, however, would force a recalculation, as that support would have failed.

I'm putting the odds of $USDTRY hitting 48.00 by month-end at a solid 65%. The current momentum, hovering near day highs around 47.16, suggests the path of least resistance is up, especially if the current inflation narrative persists without any significant policy surprises.

ส่วนตัวมองว่า $DOGE มีโอกาสราวๆ 60-65% ที่จะขึ้นไปแตะ $0.075 ได้ก่อนสิ้นเดือนพฤษภาคมนี้ สาเหตุหลักๆ เลยคือช่วงที่ผ่านมามันดูเหมือนพยายามจะสร้างฐานเหนือ $0.072 ได้อยู่หลายครั้งแล้ว ถึงแม้จะยังไม่พ้นกรอบชัดเจนนัก แต่แรงขายที่เคยกดดันช่วง $0.073-0.074 ดูจะเบาลงไปบ้าง ประกอบกับตลาดคริปโตโดยรวมถ้าไม่มีอะไรมาล้มกระดาน ผมว่าโมเมนตัมเล็กๆ น้อยๆ ที่เห็นในเหรียญตัวอื่นอย่าง $MATIC วันนี้ก็น่าจะช่วยพยุงได้บ้างเล็กน้อยนะ ก็ไม่ได้บอกว่ามันจะพุ่งพรวดนะ แต่แค่รู้สึกว่าแรงอั้นมันมีอยู่บ้าง ถ้ามีข่าวเล็กๆ หรือมีอะไรมาจุดประกายสักนิดเดียวก็มีสิทธิ์ไปถึงได้สบายๆ แต่ก็ต้องระวังนะ $DOGE มันเป็นเหรียญที่พร้อมจะสวนทางความรู้สึกได้เสมออยู่แล้วน่ะสิ

ส่วนตัวมองว่า $MATIC มีโอกาสราว 60% ที่จะกลับไปแตะ 0.30 ได้ภายในสิ้นเดือนนี้ หลังจากเห็นการเคลื่อนไหวช่วง 0.27266-0.28664 วันนี้และภาพรวมตลาดยังดูมีแรงหนุนอยู่บ้างครับ

ส่วนตัวมองว่า $MATIC มีโอกาสค่อนข้างสูงที่จะทดสอบระดับ 0.30 ดอลลาร์ภายในสิ้นสัปดาห์นี้ หลังจากที่เห็นการฟื้นตัวที่แข็งแกร่งเมื่อวานนี้และวันนี้ โดยเฉพาะการยืนเหนือ 0.28 ดอลลาร์ได้ ตอนนี้ราคาอยู่ที่ 0.2826 ดอลลาร์ ซึ่งหาก momentum ยังคงอยู่และตลาดโดยรวมยังเป็นบวก ผมให้โอกาสประมาณ 60% ที่เราจะได้เห็น 0.30 ดอลลาร์ อาจจะมีการพักตัวบ้างแต่แนวรับที่แข็งแกร่งบริเวณ 0.27 ดอลลาร์ก็น่าจะช่วยพยุงไว้ได้ ข้อสังเกตคือวอลุ่มที่เริ่มกลับมาและการทดสอบแนวต้านก่อนหน้าหลายครั้งก็เป็นสัญญาณที่ดี แต่ก็ต้องจับตาดูภาพรวมของ $BTC ด้วย หากมีการปรับฐานใหญ่ MATIC ก็อาจจะได้รับผลกระทบตามไปด้วย

Hey everyone, just looking at $NFLX after that pretty significant dip today. It's currently sitting around $68.95, but earlier touched $65.095. With the momentum it's had recently, even with this pullback, I'm leaning towards it finding some support around these levels.

My gut feeling, looking at the daily chart and the general market sentiment right now, is that there's a good 60-65% chance $NFLX will close above $65 by Friday. The reason for this isn't just wishful thinking; we've seen it bounce hard from similar drops before, and the overall narrative for the company hasn't fundamentally changed, just a typical profit-taking wave. Obviously, if we get any unexpected news or a broader market correction, that could easily shift, but as things stand, I think the buyers will step in around that psychological $65 mark, possibly even pushing it back towards the mid-to-high $60s.

Looking at the current $IDR levels, specifically the 28.4 mark today, it's interesting to consider whether we see a return to the lower end of its recent range. We touched 27.73 earlier, suggesting some underlying support around that level. Given the broader macro headwinds and potential for continued dollar strength, I'd put the probability of $IDR closing out the month below 28.0 at around 35-40%. There's just not enough impetus for a significant breakout lower from a risk-on perspective right now, and the ceiling at 28.96 shows that upward pressure isn't completely gone.

เห็น $NG วิ่งลงมาแรง 3.66% วันเดียว วันนี้ก็เปิด Gap ลงอีกนิดหน่อย ผมว่าเริ่มน่าสนใจแล้วนะ คือช่วงนี้หลายๆ คนก็มองว่า Demand ยังน้อย แต่ Supply ก็ไม่ได้มีข่าวใหญ่อะไรมาทุบขนาดนั้น ที่แน่ๆ คือเรื่องอากาศก็เริ่มอุ่นขึ้นทั่วโลก (เท่าที่ตามข่าว) เลยทำให้ความต้องการใช้พลังงานช่วงนี้ลดลงไปบ้าง

แต่ทีนี้มองในแง่ Technical มันก็ลงมาพอสมควร แต่ยังไม่ถึงกับ Panic Sell คือถ้าจะเห็นระดับ 4.xx เนี่ย ต้องมีอะไรมากระตุ้นอีกซักหน่อย ผมให้ความน่าจะเป็นซัก 60% ที่เราจะได้เห็น $NG แตะระดับ 4.xx ในช่วง 2-3 สัปดาห์ข้างหน้านี้ เพราะถ้า Supply ไม่ลด แล้ว Demand ก็ยังไม่ฟื้นตัวเต็มที่ ผมว่าแรงขายมันยังไม่หมดง่ายๆ หรอกครับ

แต่ถ้าลงถึงตรงนั้นแล้วจะ rebound ไหม อันนี้ค่อยมาว่ากันอีกที ตอนนี้แค่รอดูว่า Low เก่าจะโดนทำลายหรือเปล่า ใครมีมุมมองอื่น ๆ แชร์ได้นะครับ

Curious to get some takes on $GLD hitting $370 by next Friday. Given its current level at 364.96, and observing today's range from 364.09 to 368.42, it feels like it's grinding against some overhead. My gut says there's a 60% chance it taps $370. The recent dip from yesterday's highs looks like profit-taking, and with the broader macro uncertainty still simmering, a flight to quality for gold often comes in waves. If it consolidates around this 364-365 range for another day or two, I think the next leg up could test that 370 mark pretty quickly. What's everyone else seeing in the tea leaves?

Been watching $ZARUSD pretty closely lately, and it's had a bit of a rough ride. Today's action around 0.06092382, drifting down from 0.0612 and change, isn't particularly inspiring for the bulls.

I'm thinking about the probability of us seeing a retest of the 0.062 level by the end of May. My gut feel, looking at the broader sentiment and the general risk-off tone we've been experiencing, is that it's a stretch. I'd put the odds at maybe 30-35%. We'd need some significant positive catalysts – perhaps a really strong data print out of SA that surprises everyone, or a notable shift in global risk appetite that suddenly favors emerging markets. Otherwise, I just don't see the impetus for that kind of move. More likely, we remain range-bound or even drift lower, with resistance around current levels holding firm. Happy to be proven wrong, of course, but that's my current read.

Watching $SLV today, it's dipped pretty hard to 50.39, bottoming out around 50.02. The silver bugs are probably feeling a bit twitchy. I'm putting the odds of it closing above 50.00 by Friday at about 65%. There's still a fair amount of support around that psychological 50 level, and a significant drop today might tempt some buyers back in on the dip, especially if we see any USD weakness later in the week. If it breaches 50 decisively, though, the air gets pretty thin down to 48.

Alright, looking at $CADJPY here. We're currently sitting around 115.746, and it's been a pretty steady climb. The daily range today is 115.573–115.83459, so we're pushing those intraday highs. The question is whether we close out the month above 116.00.

I'm putting the odds of a month-end close above 116.00 at about 65%. Why? The broader sentiment around CAD is still pretty strong, and with crude prices holding up, that tailwind isn't disappearing anytime soon. Technically, we've broken through some minor resistance levels relatively easily over the last week. The momentum seems to be with the bulls. The major caveat, of course, is any unexpected shift in global risk sentiment or a sudden drop in oil, but barring that, the path of least resistance looks to be higher. I don't see any significant resistance until 116.50, and given the current pace, a push to 116.00 and holding it seems achievable.

Watching $NG today, currently at 5.33, after the pretty sharp drop. I'm leaning towards a higher probability that we see a retest of the 5.00-5.10 area before month-end, maybe around 65-70% odds. The recent move seems to have broken some short-term support, and I could see some follow-through selling, or at least a lack of strong buying interest to push it back up above 5.50 consistently. What are others thinking regarding the immediate future for natural gas?

Looking at the current $DOGE action hovering around 0.073, I'm thinking there's a good 60% chance we revisit the 0.070 level before the end of the month. Volume is still pretty weak on any upward moves, and given the broader crypto sentiment, any rally seems easily faded. It just feels like there's not enough conviction to hold these minor gains, especially without a significant catalyst.

Considering the recent daily range for $EMQQ and the current sentiment, I'd put the odds of it closing above $34 by month-end at around 60%. It's been hovering right around that 33.50-33.80 area, so a slight upward push wouldn't be out of the question.