CADJPY Testing 116 — My Bet on Month-End Close

Alright, looking at $CADJPY here. We're currently sitting around 115.746, and it's been a pretty steady climb. The daily range today is 115.573–115.83459, so we're pushing those intraday highs. The question is whether we close out the month above 116.00.

I'm putting the odds of a month-end close above 116.00 at about 65%. Why? The broader sentiment around CAD is still pretty strong, and with crude prices holding up, that tailwind isn't disappearing anytime soon. Technically, we've broken through some minor resistance levels relatively easily over the last week. The momentum seems to be with the bulls. The major caveat, of course, is any unexpected shift in global risk sentiment or a sudden drop in oil, but barring that, the path of least resistance looks to be higher. I don't see any significant resistance until 116.50, and given the current pace, a push to 116.00 and holding it seems achievable.