CADJPY testing 114: A look at potential range by month-end

Hey everyone,

Been watching $CADJPY with some interest lately. We're currently sitting around 114.178, having poked up to 114.27265 earlier today. The recent pullback from the highs feels like it could be a setup for a couple of scenarios into month-end. On one hand, you have the general sentiment of yen weakness, but then you also have the oil price action, which can give CAD a bit of a lift. My gut is that we're going to see some consolidation here rather than a decisive breakout or breakdown in the very near term.

Considering the daily range we've seen, and factoring in month-end flows which can sometimes be a bit whippy, I'd put the odds of $CADJPY staying within a 113.50-114.80 range by October 31st at about 65%. A push above 115 feels less likely right now, maybe 20% odds, given the overhead resistance that's built up. Conversely, a drop below 113.00, perhaps if we see a significant risk-off event or a CAD-specific weakness, I'd peg at around 15%. What are others seeing in their models or just generally feeling about this pair for the next week or so?