CADJPY - Looking for 116.50 by Month-End

Watching $CADJPY with some interest heading into the latter half of the month. We’re currently hovering around 115.977, but I'm leaning towards a test of 116.50 before month-end, placing those odds at about 65%. The primary driver for this outlook is the persistent strength in crude, coupled with the BoC's recent hawkish stance being less-than-fully-priced in, especially relative to the BoJ's extremely dovish posture. While JPY intervention fears always loom, the market seems to have digested a fair amount of yen weakness already without significant pushback. A decisive break above today's high of 116.248 could provide the catalyst needed to push us towards that 116.50 level. The downside risk remains a broader risk-off move or an unexpected shift in commodity sentiment, but absent those, the path of least resistance still seems to be higher.