Considering the CADJPY's continued strength, currently around 115.468, and upcoming CPI data for both Canada and Japan, I'd give about a 60% probability of CADJPY touching 116.00 by month-end, especially if Canadian CPI prints hotter than expected, reinforcing the Bank of Canada's hawkish stance relative to the BoJ.
While 116.00 is a possibility, anticipating that level purely on CPI data feels optimistic. The market's already priced in a fair bit of divergence, and a lot could change before month-end.
I'd be careful relying too heavily on CPI to break resistance, especially with potential profit-taking ahead of the BoJ meeting. We've seen this pair stall at similar levels before.
60% seems low given the current momentum and the BOC's rhetoric. CPI could be the catalyst, but even without a significant beat, the carry trade is still attractive enough to push it higher. Don't underestimate the yen's weakness here.
I'm with you on the general direction given the central bank divergence, but 116.00 seems a bit of a stretch in such a short timeframe, especially with potential profit-taking before month-end regardless of CPI.