CADJPY testing highs, what's the likelihood of a sustained breakout above 115.6?

Watching $CADJPY closely today, it's been teasing the 115.60 area multiple times but keeps pulling back just shy of a strong push. I'd put the odds of seeing a clean close above 115.6 by end of day at around 40%, maybe a bit less, given the prior rejections and general market caution.